From Decline to Opportunity: How South Africa’s Sunrise Sectors Can Power Youth Employment

By Tshego Walker, Director, Presidential Youth Employment Intervention, Presidency

Linking possibilities with action for youth employment

Beneath the surface of South Africa’s sluggish economic and employment growth potentially lies a more hopeful story – a story of the emerging “sunrise sectors” that are already absorbing young talent and have the potential to do much more. The Presidential Youth Employment Intervention commissioned a study investigating which sub-sectors and value chains could absorb substantial numbers of young people in the short to medium term.

The study found that from a macro perspective, all industries have the capacity to employ more young people, particularly in Trade, Business Services, Community Services, Manufacturing, and Construction. This finding is based on historical ratios of youth participation in the economy in 2008, when 44% of employment went to young people under the age of 35, to 2024, when that ratio fell to 34%. To increase youth access throughout the economy, companies need to adopt more inclusive hiring practices, and Government needs to expand and support small enterprises and self-employment and focus on demand-led skills development.

Seven opportunities

This study explored subsectors and value chains within those broader macro sectors mentioned above. Each of the seven sectors discussed below has the potential to create well over 100,000 net new youth jobs, but none of this is guaranteed without focused action.

1. Global Business Services: This mainly call centre-focused industry is an established and proven employer of youth, particularly female youth, and is on track to create nearly 300,000 youth jobs by 2030 if it maintains its current 20% annual growth rate, with a sector-wide target of 500,000 new jobs by 2030 ¹GBS Masterplan. This sector continues to be supported by Government through an incentive programme linked to employment.
2. Tourism: Tourism is a highly labour-intensive sector that spans both formal and informal economies, offering a wide range of entry-level and semi-skilled employment opportunities. Tourism is also deeply interconnected with other sectors such as Transport, Retail Trade, the Creative Industries, and Platform Services (e.g., e-hailing, deliveries, online accommodation and experience bookings). New jobs in this industry are driven by an increase in international air arrivals. A recent study found that every 13 international arrivals (overseas and Africa air arrivals) results in one job². Genesis Analytics, 2025, Expanding Tourism Employment. If we increase air arrivals by 35% to 3.84mn by 2030, we can create 80,000 new direct jobs by 2030 on the back of international tourism³Ibid. The Electronic Travel Authorisation that will be launched by the Department of Home Affairs in September 2025 is expected to expedite the visa process and significantly increase arrivals.
3. Early Childhood Development (ECD): This is a foundational sector with a “triple dividend” impact: it enables women’s labour force participation, enhances children’s long-term capabilities, and enables jobs, particularly for women in caregiving roles. Achieving universal access to early learning programmes could create over 200,000 additional direct jobs, approximately 40% of which could be youth jobs⁴. South Africa’s 2030 Strategy for Early Childhood Development Programmes. ECD also plays a critical role in township and rural economies, where it stimulates demand for auxiliary services and supports local enterprises. This sector is benefiting from the Department of Basic Education’s Mass Registration Drive – aiming to bring the existing subsidy of R24 per child per day to more children and making it more economically viable.
4. Digital Sector: The digital industry provides opportunities, both a standalone industry and as an enabler across other industries. It brings the skills supporting the fourth industrial revolution – coding, design, artificial intelligence (AI), user experience, and social media. Global trends and technological progress drive this sector, and an estimated 44,000 entry-level digital jobs are available immediately⁵https://www.nbi.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/JET-SEP-Powering-Futures-Report.pdf. Both skilling and work integration programmes are needed, and initiatives like Collective X and Jobs Boost are already preparing young people for these roles. These efforts demonstrate that with the right support, young people can thrive in the jobs of the future.
5. Platforms and e-Commerce: Platforms act as orchestrators and marketplaces, connecting work seekers to opportunities, enabling upskilling, and managing logistics, payments, and customer engagement. These platforms are increasingly integrated with sectors like travel and tourism, fast food, digital, general retail, and personal services. This industry can be a driver of inclusive economic growth due to the relatively low barriers to entry. Last-mile delivery⁶ the final link in the chain that delivers goods or services to end customers in South Africa, a highly labour-intensive segment of the platform and e-commerce economy, is projected to grow by 27% between 2024 and 2030.⁷ITWeb, 2024. Conservatively estimated, this alone could add substantially more than 100,000 net new jobs by 2030⁸Ibid . Here is a particular opportunity in enabling access to vehicles, licenses, and permits to broaden access for South Africa Youth.
6. The Agricultural Value Chain: International demand for South African fresh fruit and nuts far outstrips supply, but needs to be unlocked through trade deals, increased port capacity and efficiency, and solving export blockages like the EU’s phytosanitary requirements. Growing fruit like citrus, avocados, berries, and nuts is labour intensive and can, with intentional support, benefit emerging and small-scale farmers. In addition, the related food and beverage manufacturing industry has existing players who are ready to scale.
7. The Green Economy: The Green Economy is a strategic growth area for South Africa’s decarbonisation and just transition agenda. There are short-term employment opportunities in solar, wind, battery, and waste management, whilst in the longer term, broader energy transition issues like transmission, efficiency, and green hydrogen will need to be addressed. In the medium-term, sub-sectors such as solar and wind could generate up to 174,000 jobs by 2030, many of which are accessible to youth with limited formal education⁹NBI Powering Futures The Green Skilling Opportunities. Entry-level roles in construction, operations, and maintenance are especially promising. However, systemic barriers—such as fragmented skills development, underrepresentation of women, and regulatory uncertainty—must be addressed to fully unlock this potential.

Unlocking potential through collaboration

Unlocking the job creation potential of these sectors requires coordinated action from government, business, and philanthropic organisations:

• This includes supporting the expansion of proven initiatives in Global Business Services, Tourism, Early Childhood Development, and the Digital Sector, which are already demonstrating impact.
• In the platform and e-commerce economy, targeted efforts should enable greater access to vehicles and licenses for young people, particularly in township areas where barriers to entry remain high.
• Within the agricultural value chain there is a need to unlock trade deals and replicate successful models, such as those in citrus, to broaden participation by emerging farmers.

Underpinning all these sectoral efforts is the critical need for a future workforce that is both appropriately skilled and sufficiently work-ready. This calls for the expansion of demand-led skilling initiatives, such as digital training and work readiness programmes like Jobs Boost, which align directly with employer needs and create pathways into decent work. Additionally, building technical skills to support emerging green technologies will be essential to fully unlock the employment potential of the green economy.

Philanthropic organisations play a catalytic role in unlocking this potential—by funding innovation, de-risking early-stage initiatives, implementing demand-led skilling initiatives, and supporting ecosystem building. Philanthropy’s’ flexible, risk-tolerant capital and convening power can help scale what works for youth.

South Africa’s sunrise sectors offer a clear and compelling path to tackling youth unemployment—if we act decisively. Each of the highlighted industries holds transformative potential, not just for job creation but for building a more inclusive and dynamic economy. By investing in demand-led skilling, removing systemic barriers, and aligning public and private sector efforts, we can turn emerging opportunities into widespread impact. The question is no longer if these sectors can deliver – it is whether we will do what it takes to unlock their promise for South Africa’s youth.