By Dzunisani Mathonsi, Project Management Officer at MISTRA and Sarah Cairns, Head of Trust, Optima
Forward-looking and ambitious
A one-of-a-kind, forward-looking collaboration between philanthropy, government and education experts is taking shape in an ambitious move to propel Basic Education to excellence by 2040. How can philanthropy support the significant advancement of early-grade literacy and numeracy in South Africa by 2040? – this is the question that propelled a group of IPASA members – the Zenex Foundation, Optima, and the Standard Bank Tutuwa Community Foundation into action a few months ago. Together with the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA), they have co-created an initiative that explores how philanthropy can most effectively support government efforts to strengthen early grade learning in South Africa. This project, which looks ahead to the year 2040, focuses on the foundational phase of schooling from Grade R to Grade 3, where learners develop the essential numeracy and literacy skills that shape their future academic success and long-term wellbeing.
This project harnesses the collective wisdom and commitment of the philanthropic sector, government, and education experts to examine emerging trends, persistent challenges, and new opportunities that could influence the direction of early learning over the next 15 years. Developing scenarios with the support of Zenex, Optima, Tutuwa, IPASA and other key players in the education ecosystem, is the core of this initiative which will provide a sound footing to guide decision-making, strengthen collaboration, and improve outcomes for young learners across the country.
Focusing where it matters most
Building a thriving and equitable society depends on quality foundational education. Research consistently shows that children who master basic reading and numeracy skills by Grade 3 are more likely to progress confidently through school, complete matric, and pursue further training or employment. Conversely, learners who fall behind in the early years often struggle to catch up, contributing to high dropout rates and pervasive socio-economic inequality. As pointed out by President Ramaphosa in his address to the B20, inclusive growth calls for making the most of all South Africans’ capabilities, talents and efforts to optimise the productive potential of the economy, through quality foundational education. “This calls for an approach that invests in people. It must start in the earliest years of life, establishing through quality foundational education a platform for learning that produces the skills that the economy of tomorrow will need.”
South Africa has made significant progress in expanding access to early learning. Enrolment in Grade R has increased over the past decade, yet despite this broadening access, serious quality challenges persist, especially in under-resourced communities. One of the most pressing issues is the shortage of well-trained Grade R and Foundation Phase teachers. Many teachers enter classrooms without adequate grounding in early childhood development (ECD) or strategies for teaching beginner literacy and numeracy. As a result, learners experience uneven instructional quality, which directly affects their ability to read for meaning and perform basic calculations by Grade 3.
Resource constraints, particularly in rural provinces and informal settlements, further compound these challenges. Many schools lack high-quality learning and teaching support materials, such as graded readers, teacher guides and lesson plans factors which play a crucial role in promoting early cognitive development. While a number of funder initiatives have filled some of these gaps, long-term sustainability remains a concern.
Philanthropic organisations can be essential partners in improving early-grade education. Their contributions can extend beyond financial support if they work in a supportive role with key stakeholders to scale successful interventions. Philanthropic partners often operate as a bridge between research and practice, drawing on evidence to design solutions that can be adopted nationally or provincially.
How philanthropy can help
Education philanthropy operates within a large and complex education system, where real and lasting change rests with government. The most meaningful role funders can play is to align with and strengthen government priorities. This often means working within existing processes, timelines and capacities, and recognising the diversity of contexts across provinces and schools. While funder-supported initiatives can add value, their long-term contribution depends on how well they complement system-wide efforts, which can be taken forward by government beyond the funding cycle.
To undertake this work, MISTRA is using the Intuitive Logic methodology. This methodology combines three critical elements – evidence-based research, creativity and broad stakeholder engagement – to create coherent, plausible narratives about possible futures. Scenario planning is especially valuable in a sector like education, where change is influenced by a wide combination of factors, including technology, demographics, political priorities, economic pressures, and societal attitudes toward learning
The process thus far
The process involves several stages, beginning with defining the key question that the scenarios will address. For this project, the core question is: How can philanthropy best support government efforts to improve early-grade literacy and numeracy in South Africa by 2040?
Once this question was agreed upon, the project team identified stakeholders who would form the Reference Team. This team includes philanthropic foundations, government, researchers and educational experts who can offer insights into the system’s strengths, gaps, and emerging trends.
The first phase of the project involved a literature review to build a comprehensive understanding of challenges in the foundational phase. Following the literature review, the team conducted a series of structured interviews with stakeholders. These engagements were essential for grounding the project in real experiences and for capturing nuances that might be overlooked in academic literature.
From the combined insights of the literature review and interviews, the project team drafted a preliminary list of variables.
The preliminary list was presented to the project’s Core Team, which consists of representatives from Zenex, Optima, Tutuwa, IPASA and MISTRA. After discussion and refinement, the expanded list of variables was taken to the Reference Team for further review.
During the session, stakeholders participated in a collaborative exercise to assess each variable’s level of impact on the early learning system and its degree of uncertainty between now and 2040. Variables that are both high-impact and highly uncertain become the Key Driving Forces (KDFs). These KDFs help shape the foundation of the final scenario narratives, as they represent the system’s most influential and unpredictable elements.
At this stage, the project has identified 27 variables and two emerging KDFs. As work continues, these forces will be used to guide the development of the scenario storylines.
Next steps
With the KDFs now identified, the project will move toward an intensive workshop phase. An in-person workshop with the Reference Team will be held to construct plausible future storylines for early-grade education by 2040. In this session, the Reference Team members will explore a range of possibilities, both positive and challenging, to imagine what the education landscape might look like under different conditions.
These scenarios are not predictions. Instead, they present structured, evidence-based narratives that help stakeholders examine how different combinations of policy choices, social conditions, resource availability, and political dynamics might shape the future. The scenarios will highlight opportunities to strengthen the early learning system, as well as potential risks that philanthropies and government should plan for.
Following the scenario-building session, a second workshop will take place. This session will focus on “stress-testing” against the different scenarios. This process involves assessing how well current or proposed interventions would hold up in various future environments.
Enhancing impact
By mapping diverse pathways to 2040, these scenarios open space for clarity and collaboration. They show us where our efforts can be most transformative, where new alliances can be forged, and how to navigate the uncertainties ahead. Ultimately, this work aspires to equip the sector with the foresight to make visionary long-term choices—choices that uplift early-grade literacy and numeracy and help the next generation of learners grow, thrive, and realise their full potential.